Similarity of Business Fluctuations in the US and Large Emerging Economies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15678/ZNUEK.2014.0925.0102Keywords:
business fluctuations, emerging economies, spectral analysis, business cycle synchronisationAbstract
The purpose of the paper was to verify the hypothesis that a relationship exists between business cycles in the US and the main emerging economies (excluding China). If one compares the deviations of GDPs from their long-term trends on the basis of the conducted analysis, including harmonic and coherence analysis, it appears that prior to the global financial crisis there was already some degree of synchronisation of cycles between these economies and the US, which then increased substantially during the crisis itself. If this was a real phenomenon, one may justifiably have doubts as to the ability of the majority of emerging economies to reach pre-crisis GDP growth rates in the near future.Downloads
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